Democrats' dream scenario

http://www.mercurynews.com/politics/ci_8 486536

Democrats' dream scenario: a filibuster-proof majority in Senate

ELECTION LANDSCAPE STACKED AGAINST GOP

03/07/2008

WASHINGTON - When Mark Begich, the popular 45-year-old mayor of Anchorage, Alaska, came to town for a meeting of mayors in January, he was beckoned to the Capitol by the Senate majority leader, Harry Reid of Nevada. There was one agenda item: ousting Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, the most senior Republican in Congress.

For 45 minutes, Reid and Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, the head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, pressed the mayor to run. Last week, they got their man. Begich announced Feb. 27 that he had formed a committee to start raising money. The race is on.

For Democrats hoping the November elections set off a seismic shift in Washington, the dream scenario is not just capturing the White House, but also winning a filibuster-proof majority of 60 seats in the Senate - a luxury no president has enjoyed since Jimmy Carter 30 years ago.

As far-fetched as that might seem - Democrats now control the Senate by a razor-thin 51-49 majority, thanks only to two independents who vote with them - some Democrats have started thinking out loud that such a scenario is within reach.

From the Northeast to the Southwest, the Democrats have such a strong hand in this year's Senate contests that they are sensing the possibility of victories in unlikely states such as Oklahoma and Mississippi, and now even Alaska, which last elected a Democratic senator in 1974.

"It's a remote possibility, but it is within the realm of the plausible," said Paul Starr, a public affairs professor at Princeton University and a liberal commentator.

Numbers help tell the story: Republicans have 23 seats to defend, including five left vacant by retiring incumbents, while the Democrats have just 12 seats to defend, with a competitive race expected only in Louisiana. Even there, the incumbent, Mary Landrieu, is a heavy favorite.

The presidential campaign, too, seems to be cutting in the Democrats' favor. In many states, there has been record voter turnout in the primaries, but far more for the Democrats. Nearly 28 million people have voted in Democratic races so far this year, compared with more than 17 million in Republican races.

Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, in particular, has shown the capacity to ignite turnout among younger voters and black voters, and Democratic strategists believe he could have longer coattails than Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York in states such as Minnesota and Oregon, where Democrats hope to swipe Senate seats held by Republicans.

On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain of Arizona's need to run as a centrist may undermine his ability to help congressional candidates.

Democrats also are dominating the money race. Campaign finance data released in late February showed the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee with more than $30 million, compared with about $13 million for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Though it is unlikely that Democrats will pick up nine seats this year, according to any reading of the political map it remains a possibility - as tantalizing a thought for Democrats as it is horrifying to Republicans.

Democrats have repeatedly sought to get 60 votes to advance legislation only to be blocked by Republicans. Thursday, Senate Democratic leaders complained that Republicans had engaged in a record number of filibusters.

Republicans accused Democrats of exaggerating the numbers and of inviting Republican filibusters by pursuing legislation they say is partisan.

So far, no Democratic incumbents are so vulnerable that their re-election campaigns are rated as clearly up for grabs.

"I don't remember a time when I had a ratings chart that I am looking at now, where one party didn't have any races in 'tossup' at all," said Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate races for the Cook Political Report, a non-partisan publication. "When have you had a cycle where a party has a one-seat majority and there is absolutely no talk of them losing that majority? It doesn't happen that way, ever."

Independent analysts like Duffy predict that the Democrats will pick up four to six seats, with an open seat in Virginia virtually certain to flip in their favor and Republicans at risk of losing open seats in New Mexico and Colorado.

Two GOP Senators

both GOP Senators in Wyoming & Mississippi up for re-election 2008

Governors of Wyoming & Mississippi

DEM - Dave Freudenthal ( til 2010 )
GOP - Halley Barbour ( til 2011 )

John McCain and GOP are focusing on New Mexico to keep retiring Pete Dominenci's seat in Senate for GOP; special GOP meeting already in New Mexico organized by John McCain; and all that energy will go towards early organizing for Governor's race 2010 Dem Gov. Bill Richardson is term limited;

hence the focus on N.M.; national labs LANL & Sandia & Air Force base in NM;

Senate 2008: 23 GOP races - 12 DEM races

http://uspolitics.about.com/od/2008elect ions/l/bl_2008_senate_elections.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stat es_Senate_elections,_2008

If you look at the list of only incumbent Dems you can see why Mary Landrieu is being targetted for a 'bloodbath' - - the other incumbents likely to be safe while she might be able to be knocked off;

Mary Landrieu of Louisiana

Senator Mary Landrieu was elected in 1996 following a recount and was narrowly re-elected in 2002 in a runoff election. Since those elections, Democrats have had to endure the loss of many reliable voters because Hurricane Katrina dispersed many African-Americans from New Orleans. Louisiana elected David Vitter in 2004, the state's first Republican senator since Reconstruction. Louisiana's electoral votes also went to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004

On August 27, 2007, state Treasurer John N. Kennedy announced he was switching parties from Democrat to Republican.

On November 29, after being personally recruited by Vitter and former Bush administration official Karl Rove, Kennedy announced plans to challenge Landrieu in 2008.

A SurveyUSA poll shows him trailing Landrieu 46% to 42%.

GOP Senators retiring: Colorado,Idaho,Nebraska,New Mexico,Virginia